Animation by Tom Prater for Carbon Brief.Ĭhina is a relatively distant second, with 11%, followed by Russia (7%), Brazil (5%) and Indonesia (4%). Bottom right, remaining carbon budget to limit global warming at 1.5C (50-50 chance).
Video shows, by ranked nation, cumulative CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, land use and forestry, 1850-2021 (million tonnes). In first place on the rankings, the US has released more than 509GtCO2 since 1850 and is responsible for the largest share of historical emissions, Carbon Brief analysis shows, with some 20% of the global total. In this article, Carbon Brief looks at national responsibility for historical CO2 emissions from 1850-2021, updating analysis published in 2019.įor the first time, the analysis includes CO2 emissions from land use and forestry, in addition to those from fossil fuels, which significantly alters the top 10. This means that, by the end of 2021, the world will collectively have burned through 86% of the carbon budget for a 50-50 probability of staying below 1.5C, or 89% of the budget for a two-thirds likelihood. In total, humans have pumped around 2,500bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) into the atmosphere since 1850, leaving less than 500GtCO2 of remaining carbon budget to stay below 1.5C of warming. History matters because the cumulative amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted since the start of the industrial revolution is closely tied to the 1.2C of warming that has already occurred. Historical responsibility for climate change is at the heart of debates over climate justice.
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